Young Democrats of Utah Election Night Party!

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It's funny because it is true...

Election Predictions – Part V – Federal Races

This is the last in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Wednesday concerned itself with the Utah State House of Representatives while Friday was the Utah Senate. Finally, last Sunday focused on statewide races.

Remember everyone, the election is in a week. If you don’t know where to vote, click here. Polls will be open from 7 AM to 8 PM on November 4th.

House District 1

Prediction – Rob Bishop – 66-30-2-1%
Endorsement – Morgen Bowen

As a citizen of the First Congressional District, I have been all too familiar with Rob Bishop and his proposals; having done many things that I fundamentally disagree with, I will not be casting my support for him in a week. The problem is that, though I do not agree with his politics, I see that he is a very smart guy. He has not been a blubbering fool while on Capitol Hill, just a conservative supporter of whatever way the wind blows for Republicans. Bishop will win, hands down, for two reasons: 1 – He has an “R” next to his name and this plays well with his constitutes and, two, Bowen has had a hard time campaigning. This second fact is why I give Bishop a 2-1 advantage. As a Democrat in the district, I don’t think I have received one piece of information from their campaign. With resources spread thin, I commend Bowen for putting up a fight.

Morgen Bowen(D) – http://www.bowenforcongress.com/
Rob Bishop (R) – http://www.votebishop.com/
Joseph Buchman (L) – http://www.buchmanforcongress.com/
Kirk Pearson (C) – (unknown web site)

House District 2

Prediction – Jim Matheson 61-37-1-1
Endorsement – Jim Matheson

Matheson has barely had to campaign in his district, and for good reason. Bill Dew offers no real challenge and has made little noise this election cycle. The fact of the matter is Matheson has done better and better every year he has gone up for reelection, and there is no reason to think that this year will be any different. No the real election story will be in 2012 when Matheson’s district is sliced and diced due to redistricting. Republicans will have to create one strong Democratic district in Utah, and Matheson will be in it. No doubt he will face and inner-party challenger and be in the race of his political life. By socking away money now, Matheson is looking four years ahead, trying to avoid becoming the Democratic Chris Cannon.

Jim Matheson (D) – http://mathesonforcongress.com/
Bill Dew (R) – http://www.billdew.com/
Mathew Arndt (L) – (unknown web site)
Dennis Emery (C) – (unknown web site)

House District 3

Prediction – Jason Chaffetz – 69-28-3%
Endorsement – Bennion Spencer

Speaking of Chris Cannon…This race certainly has been one of the more interesting ones to watch, if only because both candidates have made some interesting statements. On the one hand Jason Chaffetz said he would put illegal immigrants in tent cities wrapped with barbwire fences, on the other Bennion Spencer, in a very poorly worded statement, said that Jesus would vote for him. Spencer has the unenviable task of running as a Democrat in what is arguably the most conservative congressional district in the nation and I predict that, despite having a moderate message, the voters will elect Chaffetz in a landslide. Looks like we should reactivate the Topaz internment camp.

Bennion Spencer (D) – http://www.bennionspencerforcongress.com/
Jason Chaffetz (R) – http://www.jasonforcongress.com/
Jim Noorlander (C) - http://www.jimnoorlanderforcongress.com/

California Proposition 8

Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – No

In what has become one of the most watched elections in the nation, Californians will be deciding the fate of gay marriage in their state. Polls, as of late, have stated that the proposition will pass by a margin of around 53-47, however, what the majority of these polls also point out is that young voters are severely under-represented in polls, and have margins of error well above 4 percent; hence the “to close to call.” The simple fact of the matter is, it is not unreasonable to say that at least three percent of young voters could turn this into a failing proposition and another one to two could be floating around.

Against Proposition 8 - http://www.noonprop8.com/
For Proposition 8 - http://www.protectmarriage.com/

Now what am I forgetting? I swear there is some other election that is going on, but I just can’t put my finger on it…Ooooooooh that’s right!

President – Utah Turnout

Prediction – John McCain/Sarah Palin –57-41-2%
Endorsement – Barak Obama/ Joe Biden

Anyone who thinks that Obama is going to win Utah is just fooling themselves, however the fact that I predict that he will break 40 percent speaks volumes. The Democratic National Committee’s fifty state strategy was designed to excited people in even the reddest of the red states, and this, combined with a fantastic candidate, will make a lot people vote for the first time for a Democrat (either because they have never voted before or because they have always considered themselves Republican).

President – National Turnout

Prediction – Obama/Biden 360 Electorial Votes

Lets face it, this election has been going on for far too long and both candidates would make a good president. Yes I know, I know, McCain is the Devil (or vice versa), but lets face it, either is a marked improvement over Bush. Obama, however, has taken his campaign to a whole new level. His message of change and hope are needed in a time where the politics of old are failing. We must reunite as a nation and work towards the common goods of liberty, education, economic growth, and liberty, and I feel that Barak Obama and Joe Biden with are the ones who will take us to that better future.

Barak Obama/ Joe Bide (D) – http://www.barakobama.com/
John McCain/ Sarah Palin (R) – http://www.johnmccain.com/

And, just for fun, here is my prediction for the electoral map!

Yes we Carve!

Because I have too much free time, and because I think they are so awesome, I felt it necessary to share a few of the pumpkins my friends and I did up yesterday. Thank Breanne for the photos!

Yes, yes, Matt and Bianca were nerdy enough to do a Young Democrats of Utah and Barak Obama pumpkin. Mikel's send up to far East Asia in the back.

Damn it! I guess I am an even bigger nerd!

Pish! People with their "traditonal" pumpkins!

To get your own Obama stencil, click here!

Election Predictions – Part IV – State Wide Races

This is the fourth in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Wednesday concerned itself with the Utah State House of Representatives while Friday was the Utah Senate. Next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns, and I have decided to talk about a little race going on in California as well.

Here, my fellow readers, is the post where I lose the most friends if only because I speak the truth!

State Treasurer

Prediction – Richard Ellis 59-41%
Endorsement – Dick Clark

This race is notable if only because of the Mark Walker scandal that rocked the Utah State Legislature earlier this year. Ellis will no doubt, slide into victory with no problem as he has an "R" next to his name; this is not to say that Ellis is not qualified, only that people tend not to pay much attention to these sorts of races. If history proves correct, this one will fall along party lines.

Dick Clark (D) – (unknown web site)
Richard Ellis (R) – www.ellisfortreasurer.com

State Auditor

Prediction – Austin Johnson III 59-35-3-3
Endorsement – Clare Collard

Again, I predict that the Republican will win hands down in this race. It is not due to a lack of effort on Collard’s part, however. She has put in as much effort as 2004’s candidate, Carlos Vasquez, in trying to gain the position. Most people, again, simply do not take the time necessary to learn about the candidate, and people will simply vote along party lines.

Clare Collard (D) –www.voteclarecollard.com
Austin Johnson III (R) – (unknown web site)
Richard Proctor (C) – http://proctorforauditor.blogspot.com
Mike Stoddard (L) – (unknown web site)

Attorney General

Prediction – Mark Shurtleff 67-29-4%
Endorsement – None

Now, as many of you know, I was let go from this campaign after a change in campaign managers earlier this year; that being said I will still attempt to offer an unbiased opinion with personal insight. Shurtleff will win for two reasons, one: he has done a good job of batting down any attacks Democrat Jean Welch Hill has put up, and two, the Hill campaign has struggled to get their message out and had too many changes in direction making it difficult to campaign.

Jean Welch Hill (D) – www.jeanwelchhill.org
Mark Shurtleff (R) – www.shurtleff2008.com
W. Andrew McCullough (L) - www.andrewmccullough.org

Governor

Prediction – Jon Huntsman/Gary Herbert 71-23-6
Endorsement – Bob Springmeyer/Josie Valdez

In the biggest blowout in the state, Jon Huntsman will trounce Springmeyer. This should come as no surprise as Huntsman is an extremely popular governor who seems to do no wrong (despite voting for vouchers, the omnibus bill, ReAL, etc.). To exacerbate the problem, the Springmeyer campaign has had a difficult time maintaining staff, thus making it more difficult to go out and properly campaign. It should also be noted that good ol’ "Superdell" Schanze will be on this ticket and, I predict, be the best performing third party candidate in the state, if only because of the novelty of it all.

Bob Springmeyer/Josie Valdez (D) – www.bobforgov.org
Jon Huntsman/Gary Herbert (R) – www.huntsman08.com
Dell Schanze/Joey Hobbs (L) - http://totallyawesome.com

Wazzzzzzzzup 2008

Sarah Palin v. United States

So I know I am a little behind the curve on this whole "Sarah Pailn has foreign policy experience because she is next to Russia" thing, but I heard it again today and have yet to hear this as an legal argument.

If, when refereeing to her tenure as Governor of Alaska, someone says that Sarah Palin has experience with trade envoys and being the first line of defense against Russia, what they are really saying is that Sarah Pailn is in direct violation of the Constitution of the United States.

But don’t take my word for it – allow me to quote from Article I, Section X

Paragraph I:
No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation…

Paragraph II:
No State shall, without the Consent of the Congress, lay any Imposts or Duties on Imports or Exports, except what may be absolutely necessary for executing it’s inspection laws: and the net Produce of all Duties and Imposts, laid by any State on Imports or Exports, shall be for the Use of the Treasury of the United States; and all such Laws shall be subject to the Revision and Controul (sp) of the Congress.

Paragraph III:
No State shall, with the Consent of Congress,…enter into any agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

So, allow me to translate:

Paragraph I:
No state (Alaska being one, last I checked) can never, never, never have any form of diplomatic relations. NEVER!

Paragraph II:
Unless the United States Congress specifically says that it is ok, no state (Alaska being one, I dare to point out) put a tariff, or tax if you will, on anything that leaves or comes into its ports. If they do get permission, the money goes straight to the United States Government, not the state where it was taken in.

Paragraph III:
No state (Alaska has been one for almost 50 years now) can never, never, never, go to war with another state or country unless they are invaded first and, for some reason, the United States Government, can not or will, not respond.

So, what the Constitution is saying is that a state can not conduct any diplomatic, economic, or military procedures against another country. It is almost as if the Founding Fathers wanted states to focus on being part of the republic, not their own countries.

So then, I ask to you, right-wing pundits. Was Sarah Pain engaged in foreign policy while Governor of Alaska? If so, she is in blatant violation of the Constitution of the United States of America and has committed treason. If not, I guess it would mean that you are wrong, and it is a lie to continue perpetrating it on the American people.

P.S. Sorry that, yet again, that pesky little Constitution got in the way of your grand schemes.

Is Salt Lake City Part of "Real America?"

I wanted to take a quick time out from my predictions to note this little gem.

Recently John Stewart of the Daily Show had a little equation to help you figure out if you live in "Real America:"

(Population* average price of coffee + Art house movie theaters * Streets
named after Martin Luther King) all over pieces of identification needed to buy
Sudafed * (the number of people who wear trucker hats in town – Actual truckers)
* 1/(houses of worship [not Jewish]-bars)

If the answer is less than 10, you live in real America!

So what is this for the saintly Salt Lake City? Well lets find out:

Population – Est. 180,746 in 2006
Average price of a cup of coffee - $1.50
Art House Movie theaters – 4
Streets named after Martin Luther King Jr. – 1
Identification needed to buy Sudafed – 1
Number of people who wear trucker hats – Estimate 3% - 5,422
Number of actual truckers – Estimate 1% - 1,807
Number of churches – 79
Number of bars – 23

And the result?

(180,746*1.5+4*1)/((1*(5,422-1,807))*(1/(79-23)) = 271,123/((3615)*(1/56)) = 271,123/64.5 = 4203

4,203 > 10

Therefore Salt Lake City, sadly, is not part of "Real America."

Election Predictions – Part III – Utah State Senate

This is the third in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Wednesday concerned itself with the Utah State House of Representatives, Sunday will focus on statewide races, and next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns.

As with Wednesday, this will be an incomplete list of races as I am unable to follow the 15 races around the state.

It should also be noted that this and the next post will, most likely, be the post that angers most of my fellow Democrats.

District 1

Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – Luz Robles

Back in April Robles and now lame duck Senator Fred Fife, I (as a delegate) was stuck with a difficult choice: vote for Fife despite the fact that he was unpopular but could win in a general election or cast my support for Robles who, despite her qualifications, would have an uphill battle. Now, seven months later, I find that Robles has had to deal with a tough (and I would charge, somewhat dirty) campaign against her opponent. I hope Robles pulls this one out as I feel she would be fantastic for the district.

Luz Robles (D) - http://www.roblesforsenate.com/
Carlton Christensen (R) - http://www.votecarlton.org/

District 8

Prediction – To Close to Call
Endorsement – Karen Morgan

This race features two seasoned veterans of campaigns. This is Carlene Walker’s third race and Morgan’s fifth. Each of these titans knows what it takes to win and will do all they can to have this seat. This race is too close to call because, though both lean to the middle or middle right, Walker’s strength lies in the "R" next to her name. What gives Morgan the advantage is that she did not vote for vouchers while Walker did.

Karen Morgan (D) - http://www.karenmorgan.org/
Carlene Walker (R) - http://www.carlenewalker.com/
Liz Phalp (C) – (unknown web site)

District 10

Prediction – Chris Butters 57-42-1%
Endorsement – John Rendell

The ever controversial Chris Butters will slide into another four years with out much effort. Sadly Butters’ continued popularity can be attributed to a few factors: the voters in South Jordan, West Jordan, and Herriman either don’t know or don’t care that their senator has stated homophobic and racist remarks on the floor of the Utah State Senate. Rendell, too, does not strike me as someone with a strong enough personality to stand up to Butters’ bombastic nature.

John Rendell (D) - http://www.electrendell.com/
Chris Butters (R) – (unknown web site)
Steve Maxfield (C) – (unknown web site)

District 14

Prediction – John Valentine 99.8-.2%
Endorsement – none

That’s right, no one dared to take on the President of the Senate this year. I predict a landslide victory where lobbyist vote against Valentine as a joke. I bet is the Democrats willing to even bother voting in this election will throw their support behind Mickey Mouse.

John Valentine - http://johnvalentine.org/

District 27

Prediction – Brad King 52-47-1%
Endorsement – Brad King

This being Brad Kings fifth election, it goes without saying that King knows what he is doing, however this is the first time he has faced a real challenge. His opponent, however, has the advantage of having the ever present "R" next to his name. The Price area has grown more Republican over the past years. The Demo’s have only been able to stave off this wave because of former Senator Demitrich’s high popularity. That being said, I think King has what it takes to win.

Brad King (D) – (unknown web site)
David Hinkins (R) - www.electroniccastle.com/David
Michael Martin (C) – (unknown web site)

Election Predictions – Part II – State House of Representatives

This is the second in a five part series: Monday focused on Salt Lake County Elections, Friday discusses the Utah Senate, Sunday will focus on statewide races, and next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns. 

This is an incomplete list of races as I am unable to follow all 75 races around the state.  That being said I will give you a few of the ones I feel will be close or are of note.

District 28

Prediction – Brian King 52-46-2%

Endorsement – Brian King

With veteran Roz McGee stepping down, this race has provided some intrigue early on with the escort service scandal surrounding heir apparent, Kelly Ann Booth.  Arising from this was the relative unknown of Brian King.  Taking nothing for granted King has since proven himself as a fine candidate, walking the area.  I predict that King will continue to make this seat blue.

Brian King (D) - www.briansking.com

Jeff Morrow (R) - http://jeffmorrow.org

Jared Beck (C) – (unknown web site)

District 32

Prediction – Ron Bigelow – 52-48%

Endorsement – Mike Lee

This will be the second time Lee and Bigelow have gone head to head in an election.  Last time Lee pulled an impressive 40% for the, then, political new comer.  Lee has learned alot and it has shown in his strategy. This being said, I still do not feel that Lee has been able to change this seat. This race, I feel, will be greatly affected by the Obama "x" factor - if enough first time voters come out, my prediction may be wrong. 

Mike Lee (D) - www.votemikelee.org

Ron Bigelow (R) – www.ronbigelow.net 

District 36

Prediction – Phil Riesen – 55-43-1-1%

Endorsement – Phil Riesen 

Last year Riesen won his election by less than 250 votes, this year he has had to endure an ethics violation scandal. That being said, Riesen has done much for the district and should not have too big of a problem winning.  The campaign has been walking the area extensively and has raised a third more in funds.  This, combined with the power of incumbency should be enough for victory.

Phil Riesen (D) - http://philriesen.com

Drew Quinn (R) - http://electdrewquinn.com

Shaun Kruger (L) – (unknown web site)

Nishan Beglarian (C) – (unknown web site)

District 45

Prediction – To Close to Call

Endorsement – Laura Black

This is one of the Young Democrats most important races.  Black, back in 2006, lost by 18 votes and has decided to come back for more.  Black’s campaign has walked her area at least twice, and plans to do more before Election Day.  This one is going to be a squeaker if ever there was one, but it ought to be fun to watch.  This race will act as a bellwether for ethics reform in the state, as Monson replaced Representative Mark Walker had to step down amid allegations of corruption.

Laura Black (D) - www.votelaurablack.com

Brian Monson (R) – (unknown web site)

W. David Perry (C) – www.perry08.com

District 48

Prediction – To Close to Call

Endorsement – Trisha Beck

This race features two campaigning veterans, each with scars from battles past. On the one side we have Trisha Beck who, during the last cycle, got hammered by negative campaigns a few weeks before the election. On the other side we have the fastidious LaVar Christensen, who suffered a truly humiliating two to one loss against Jim Matheson after giving up his seat in the legislature to run.  This race is in another swing district, and both candidates have come out swinging.

Trisha Beck (D) - www.trishabeck.org

LaVar Christensen (R) – (unknown web site)

District 49

Prediction – Jay Seegmiller – 50-48-1-1%

Endorsement – Jay Seegmiller

In another hotly contested race, Jay Seegmiller goes up against Speaker of the House Greg Curtis for a thrid time.  During the past two elections Seegmiller has closed the gap to just 20 votes in 2006. This year no candidate has an inherent advantage in regards to name recognition, so everything hinges on policy and likeability.  I predict that Seegmiller has the resources necessary to win (despite Curtis’ quarter of a million in the bank).

Jay Seegmiller (D) – www.jayseegmiller.com

Greg Curtis (R) – (unknown web site)

Wayne Crawford (C) – (unknown web site)

Charles Bonsall (L) – (unknown web site)

District 51

Prediction – To Close to Call

Endorsement – Lisa Johnson

This is Johnson’s second attempt at the seat and, although Johnson ran a great race in 2006, she was unable to break 40% of the vote.  What makes this election so different? Two words: ethics probe. Johnson’s opponent, Greg Hughes, has been in the news a lot lately, and it has not been very good.  Accusations of bribery and political favors have opened this race wide up.  I hope the voters in this district will see Hughes’ name and immediately vote for Johnson.

Lisa Johnson (D) – www.electlisa.org

Greg Hughes (R) - www.greghughes.org

Election Predictions – Part I – Salt Lake County Elections

So this is the beginning of a series of posts where I alienate myself from the Democratic Party and say the things that none of us really want to admit – namely that we are not going to win every single election we take part in. Today it will be relatively warm and fuzzy, but as we move up the ticket, I know that I am going to upset a few people here and there. To my friends, please know that I want to be wrong, but I know that there are some places where we need to be realistic.



First off, I am not going to choose every single race, just the ones I have some level of interest in. I will base my guesses (and they are just guesses) on various criteria: previous election history, fundraising of each candidate, activity of the campaign, poll numbers (if applicable), and finally, my gut. I will also provide a summery of why I feel this way, my endorsement, and links to campaign web sites when available.


This is the first in a five part series: Wednesday will focus on State House of Representatives, Friday, the Utah Senate, Sunday will focus on state wide races, and next Tuesday will focus on federal campaigns.


Proposition 1 – Bond for Tracy Aviary.
Prediction – Proposition Fails: 44-56%
Endorsement – Proposition Passes


In these times of economic crisis, the citizens of Salt Lake County are going to have a hard time swallowing not one, but two bond proposals to improve various parks around the county. In my mind the bond will fail for two reasons: they have failed to gain traction on their “vote yes” campaign and, again, voters are going to have a hard time convincing voters to swallow a second bond initiative.


http://www.savetheaviary.com/


Proposition 2 – Bond for Hogle Zoo
Prediction – Proposition Passes: 53-47%
Endorsement – Proposition Passes


Although voters will look at the $33 million price tag and gulp, I feel that this proposition will pass with a fairly safe margin. The “Renew the Zoo” ad campaign appears to be quite successful, and I have seen numerous lawn signs throughout the county. Furthermore, I have seen no opposition to this bond initiative; my guess is that detractors feel that the price tag is enough to make people vote no. Finally I feel that the zoo has a greater attendance then the aviary and will benefit from more people being aware of the zoo.


https://www.hoglezoo.org/renew-the-zoo


County Mayor
Prediction – Peter Corroon 62-36-2%
Endorsement – Peter Corroon


With over half a million dollars more than Corroon’s closest rival, it almost goes without saying that the Corroon campaign has had little trouble leading up to this election; it also does not hurt that Corroon is arguably the most popular Democrat in Utah. It should also be noted that the Corroon campaign is taking nothing for granted. The campaign is constantly walking, making calls, and holding various meet and greets.


Peter Corroon (D) - http://www.votecorroon.com/
Michael Renckert (R) – (Web site unknown)
Leonard Olds (C) – (Web site unknown)


County Council at Large – “A”
Prediction – Randy Horiuchi 54-46%
Endorsement – Randy Horiuchi


It seems that Horiuchi has been involved in county government for as long as there has been a Salt Lake County, and I see no reason why he should not or could not continue to the end of time. I have not heard much from the Horiuchi campaign aside from the omnipresent “He’s Got Game” branding campaign. Horiuchi’s name recognition, combined with his fundraising skills, will equate to a safe victory.


Randy Horiuchi (D) – (Web site unknown)
Steven DeBry – (R) – (Web site unknown)


County Council - District 2


Prediciton – Too Close to Call
Endorsement – Paul Pugmire


From what I can gather, the race between Pugmire and County Councilman Michael Jensen is neck and neck. Pugmire has done a good job of getting his name out and, from what I have heard, he has been canvassing the West Side hard. Pugmire has been fighting against the “R” next to Jensen’s name by pointing out Jensen’s poor attendance at council meetings.


Paul Pugmire (D) - http://www.paulpugmire.com/
Michael Jensen (R) - http://electmichaeljensen.com/


County Council – District 4


Prediction – Jani Iwamoto 53-47%
Endorsement – Jani Iwamoto


In the race for District 4, Iwamoto has hit the ground running. Her campaign has been persistent in making sure that people know how Jani is and Salt Lake’s East Bench has, of late, become swing areas, favoring candidates who work the hardest. Her opponent, Mark Crockett does not appear to have as much on the ground traction, instead focusing on his previous work. If Iwamoto wins, part of the victory will have to be chalked up to the “Obama” factor.


Jani Iwamoto (D) - http://www.votejani.com/
Mark Crockett (R) - http://www.markcrockett.org/


County Council – District 6


Prediction – To close to call (revised since orginial posting from 52-49 in Burdick's favor)
Endorsement – Roger Harding

(orignial post)
I have been impressed with Harding from the start, as he really seems to be in the race for all of the right reasons. The fact that I feel that this race is close at all speaks volumes to Harding’s drive and desire to serve. I hope that I am wrong in my prediction, and feel that a lot can still happen between now and Election Day. I predict that this will not be the last time we hear from Harding if he does not make it this time around. It should also be noted that this race has the most “X” factors in my mind. The Democratic Party has been spending a lot of time in this section of the valley and a strong get out the vote effort could turn this race in Harding’s favor.


Roger Harding (D) - http://www.rogerharding.com/
Max Burdick (R) - http://www.electmax.com/

The Down Ballot Blues

Often times people look at the national elections taking place and become disheartened by the fact that their vote does not matter, after all Utah is going to vote for McCain and there is nothing we can do to change that.  These people, sadly, are absolutely right.  No matter all he hooting and hollering, after all the rallies, a victory by Obama in Utah is about as likely as Utah legalizing gambling and liquor sales in stores – it just ain't gonna happen.

So why bother voting in the first place? I mean the national election is already a foregone conclusion; your vote clearly does not matter and will not make a difference.  What is the point in showing up in the first place?

Well, let me tell you cynical Sally, this attitude is fundamentally flawed.  True, your vote will do little to sway the national election, but this dose not mean that your vote does not count. 

This year you will have the opportunity to vote on all sorts of candidates and ballot initiatives that will greatly affect you.  Everyone in the state will vote for offices such as governor, attorney general, state auditor (the dude what does give out the money), and state legislative races. In some cases people will be voting for school board members, city or county mayors, city council members, and even initiatives such as allowing a new coal power plant or expanding the Hogle Zoo.

These issues are very real and can easily be influenced by your vote. It is only logical that you have more influence over a state house race than you do over a presidential race. In a house race you re one of about 12,000 people who will vote as opposed o one in 150 million in a presidential election.  

Ah but you still say to me "one in 12,000 is still an amazing small percentage, how can my vote matter?" Good question, and this question is exactly why the Young Democrats of Utah have launched the 18 votes initiative.  Four elections in 2006 were won by less than 100 votes, the most notable being Laura Black versus Mark Walker (who would later be charged with bribery in the state treasurer's race) where the Black lost by only 18 votes and the most important being Jay Seegmiller who lost to the current Speaker of the House Greg Curtis by 20 votes.  

Now you may not know 100 people who should have voted last time but didn't, but I bet you do know one or two.  Imagine if you and you, along with your friends and neighbors, got out and voted during this last election.  Things, such as school vouchers or lower tuition for college, could have had very different outcomes. 

Think about that and then ask yourself if your vote matters; hope to see you November 4th.

100 days!

We have endured 2,822 days of the Bush administation, but now we have one hundered days until we close a sad chapter in U.S. history.

Hang in there people, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel...

(Please don't vote for John McCain - I don't want to be doing a post similar to this in four years.)

"That One"

The Joke

The Reference

The Web Site

www.thatone08.com

Utah funding crisis solved in a matter of seconds – LDS church loses tax-exempt status.

Salt Lake City – The Utah Tax Commission, in response to an IRS ruling, announced today that the state of Utah will receive a record breaking windfall for state legislators to work through during the 2009 legislative session.

Jonathan Doe, Deputy Secretary of the Internal Revenue Service, reported that their actions were prompted largely by the actions of LDS apostle M. Russell Ballard yesterday.  Ballard, in a videotaped message, told young Mormon youth to “go viral” in support of California’s ballot initiative regarding same sex marriage.  

“If Ballard had simply said such things to friends and family in California, there would be no need to prosecute the LDS church for anything,” Doe said Thursday, “The problem is this message was broadcast to Mormons in California, as well as Californians attending Brigham Young University, through religious channels, specifically LDS chapels.”

Brigham Young University is a private school owned and operated by the LDS church.

Ballard was understandably upset by the news that he, and by extension, his church, violated tax code by actively campaigning for a political campaign through religious channels. “We do this stuff back home all the time, what’s the big deal?”

The expected windfall is estimated to be more than $800 million for the state of Utah.  Locally the LDS church owns many parcels of land in fast growing sections of the Salt Lake City metro area.  This, combined with a tithing of 10 percent from members that will now be counted as income, translates to a budget surplus never before seen in Utah.

“It will be difficult to determine just how much money the state will be receiving. The LDS Church has been very secretive in its financial deals.” Elizabeth Smith of the Utah State Tax Commission said Thursday. “Needless to say the financial crunch we have been in has been more than solved.”

Legislators have already been pressured to spend the money on needed improvements to the public school system, state and local infrastructure, and a comprehensive healthcare program for those in need.

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Just thought I would share an article I found tomorrow in some bizarro universe. 

Maverick - Noun

The word maverick is being thrown around quite a bit, and I feel that it is important to look at the origination and evolution of the word.  

Dictionary.com defines a maverick as 1) an unbranded calf, cow, or steer, especially an unbranded calf that is separated from its owner. 2) a lone dissenter, as an intellectual, an artist, or a politician, who takes an independent stand apart from his or her associates.

A maverick is someone or something that runs away and is difficult to reign in.  Now being a political blog we all know who I am talking about when I bring this topic up.

John McCain has done a fantastic job of (excuse the pun) branding himself as a maverick. Now I am not going to spend my time talking about how McCain has voted for Bush and the Republican party nine times out of ten, nor am I going to discuss that he has been an outsider for over 25 years, nor am I going to discuss the fact that McCain has become more of the same.  No I simply want to discuss the idea of a maverick and if this is truly a good thing.

Why would someone want to run away from something and be difficult to reign in? Well I would argue that it is due to the fact that they fundamentally do not like the situation they are in.  Rather than dealing with issues within a particular system or group, they simply choose to run away and make their own path.  In the arts and sciences this can be a good thing.  Numerous new lines of thought and culture have been created because someone said no to the system they were working in.  These innovations move a society forward and make us all think differently about the world around us and reject the old way of thinking.

Now what is a maverick in the political world?  Again this is someone who does not like the situation they are in and attempt to change it from the outside.  

What makes politics so fundamentally different to the arts and sciences is that the effects of good or bad government are immediate and intense. If a government becomes less corrupt, the system improves almost immediately and the citizens benefit.  Likewise if a government becomes more bloated and inefficient the effects become dramatic to the people living under that system.  A maverick, in a position of power, would have a massive destabilizing effect on the government they are running (either good or bad).  

Think about this, however.  If you have ever worked in any sort of organization, I would be willing to bet that there were people within the group who always agreed with whomever was in charge, people who almost always disagreed with whomever was in charge, and those who worked almost entirely outside of the system and left you wondering why they were there in the first place.   I would argue that this third type of person, this maverick, if you will, is the most problematic to the group.  Dissenters force supporters to justify, strengthen, and compromise on their issues, all in an attempt to make the group stronger; mavericks have no particular regard for the system and would not care if it went away.  This rejection can cause anarchy within the system and will fundamentally change the group if it survives.

Do we want a president who views our current government and the way it is run as something we should just crumple up and throw away? 

Don’t get me wrong – reform needs to happen, but it needs to come from within the system.  The foundation of our government, the people, must rise up and elect their representatives and push for the system to be changed.  One person, no matter how good their intentions may be, should not have the power to change or government simply because they feel like they don’t want to be part of the group.  

Remember, this is a democracy and it is our job to mould it in a way we see fit.

Register to Vote NOW

Hey, you living in Utah, you only have three days left to register to vote by dropping it in the mail; if you dawdle you can still turn in a form to your county clerk by October 20. Click here for the form, it takes all of two minutes.

Again, if you live in Utah, simply fill out this form and mail it to your county clerk.  If you live outside of Utah, visit www.maps.google.com/vote.

Remember, if you have moved sense the last election, you need to reregister. Your party affiliation does not matter, however if you wish to change parties you do need to reregister as well.

Political Corruption, Part II – Phil Riesen

The Deseret News reported yesterday that Representative Phil Riesen has been accused by Representative Greg Hughes of ethics violations.  Hughes alleges that Riesen unethically leaked the possible ethics complaint to the media and using outside attorneys to draft ethics documents without listing them as in-kind contributions on his financial disclosure statements.

Before I continue, allow me to state a few facts: one – Greg Hughes has been accused of rather damming ethics violations with five weeks before the election; two – Susan Lawrence, the former Representative who lost to Riesen, signed a letter stating that Hughes offered her $50,000 for her vote on vouchers; three – Riesen was the only candidate to gain a seat for the Democratic party in the 2006 election; and four – Riesen is in a leadership position for the Democratic caucus. 

With these facts in mind, let us analyze the situation.

I do not know if Riesen did or did not use lawyers to draft bills; I don’t know if Hughes offered $50,000 to Lawrence; what I do know is that this all comes at a very interesting time.  Let us analyze the actions of each individual.

If Riesen did in fact unethically leak possible ethics question to the media, this would, of course, be wrong.  But how, exactly, does one do this? Is it unethical to inform citizens that their elected officials are representing them in a manor that is less than legal? I propose that it is perfectly acceptable to inform citizens about the government they are, in theory, the creators of. 

Why would Risen do such a thing at this particular junction? Risen has not contributed Hughes opponent, Lisa Johnson, and, aside from typical squabbles Hughes and Risen have no obvious reason to be out for each other. Furthermore, aside from being a Democrat, Risen has no particular reason to try and swing the election Johnson's way.  What is interesting is that Risen has been a public face for ethics reform since his inception in 2006.  

Is it possible that Risen made these allegations did this to give the advantage to the Democrat?  As of right now the answer is no; KSL reports that Representatives Democrats Brad King and Roz McGee, along with Republican Sheryl Allen, brought the allegations before House Speaker Curtis.  Let us also note that Lawrence lost to Riesen in the ’06 election and was eliminated in the Republican primary in '08, what does she possibly have to gain by giving information to Riesen so that he could leak it to the media? It simply does not make sense. 

Hughes, the leader of the Conservative caucus on the other hand, has plenty to lose if Democrats start gaining ground.  Because Riesen pushed the ball forward for liberals, it only makes sense that he would target him in an attempt to elect more conservatives.  Hughes would have little luck trying to unseat a Democrat such as Jen Seelig or David Litvack. By striking out against Riesen, Hughes is effectively trying to deflect attention away from himself and towards a potentially vulnerable Democrat; the fact that he is part of leadership is just gravy in his mind.

If Risen failed to note something on his financial statement, he should be reprimanded, but let us think of the full situation. On one hand a legislator allegedly offered another legislator $50,000 to change their vote in order to push through politically contentious legislation, on the other we have a legislator who allegedly failed to report in-kind donations from lawyers while attempting to draft (of all things) ethics reform legislation. Both are wrong, but I would argue it is like putting murder and jaywalking on the same level. 

Both men deserve to have the opportunity to be heard and all are innocent until proven guilty.  But let us not forget that this is a contentious political atmosphere where ethics reform has been blocked time and time again because it would greatly harm certain legislators. 

Hughes responce is posted on his campaign website, however the link is dead.

Young Democrats / Drinking Liberally Bar Crawl 

Friday, October 3rd, 9:00 PM

800 Main Street, Park City

For more information, or to register, click here.

Political Corruption - Greg Hughes

Just in case you missed this little tidbit -

Greg Hughes from Draper allegedly bribed former Representative Susan Lawrence with a $50,000 campaign contribution if she would vote yes on the 2006 school voucher bill.  KSL reports - 

Hughes claims that there was no quid pro quo in the incident, however it should be noted that $50,000 would have accounted for nearly 60 percent of total contributions to her campaign had she accepted.

The sad thing in all of this is that it is perfectly legal - there is no campaign donation limit law, no law stating that we need to report occupations of donors, nothing on the books stating that campaign funds can't be spent on personal expenses.  All of this is legally on the up and up.

We need an ethics bill with teeth, and we need it soon. Money will continue to influence lawmakers until something is done.  And I am sorry, that is not the democracy I believe in.